Apple Inc. has experienced solid sales of its Vision Pro headsets, with an estimated 160,000 to 180,000 units sold since the preorder launch last Friday. However, industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the product remains a niche item in the market.
Kuo points out that investors may interpret the initial sellout of Vision Pro mixed-reality devices as a positive sign, given the extended delivery times shortly after the order window opened. However, he also highlights a crucial concern that emerged following this success.
In his analysis, Kuo compares the Vision Pro with popular iPhone models, stating that they also tend to sell out immediately upon pre-order, causing shipping times to increase to several weeks within hours. However, while iPhone models typically experience further delivery time increases in the 24 to 48 hours following the initial rush, Kuo notes that wait times for the Vision Pro remained unchanged even after 48 hours.
“The initial sellout during pre-orders confirms previous predictions,” Kuo explains. “However, the lack of a steady increase in pre-order demand is a significant concern and affirms earlier skepticism about the sustainability of this level of demand.”
Apple has not responded to requests for comments regarding the initial Vision Pro orders.
Despite these concerns, Kuo remains optimistic about Apple’s ability to ship 500,000 Vision Pro devices by the end of this year. However, he also puts this estimate into perspective by mentioning that Apple has a massive user base of over 1.2 billion active users. If only 0.007% of these users are willing to buy after pre-ordering, it would be enough for the Vision Pro to sell out.
The Vision Pro headset starts at $3,499, which would generate a minimum of $630 million from the estimated 180,000 units sold. Overall, Apple is expected to generate nearly $96 billion in total revenue for the March quarter, including over $11 billion in the wearables, home, and accessories category, where the Vision Pro is likely to be situated.