The Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repo facility has recently gained attention as a crucial indicator of liquidity amidst stock market fluctuations and expectations of increased Treasury borrowing. According to data from the Fed, funds held in this facility by institutional investors have dropped from a peak of $2.5 trillion in December to $1.1 trillion.
This decline signifies a significant reduction in the pool of available cash that investors have been holding on the sidelines for purchasing Treasury debt or similar short-term investments over the past couple of years. Additionally, this trend coincides with the S&P 500 index coming close to entering correction territory, with any close below 4,130.06 indicating a 10% slump from its recent peak of 4,588.96 set in July.
While investors have been earning 5.3% on funds parked at the Fed overnight, the volume of cash has notably decreased due to increased debt issuance by the Treasury to finance a substantial federal budget deficit. Projections show that for fiscal year 2023, the deficit is estimated to be $1.7 trillion, a 23% increase from the previous year.
Bryce Doty, a senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Association, has been closely monitoring the volume and size of the Fed’s reverse repo facility. He acknowledges that it’s not a perfect measure of liquidity but believes it is worth watching, especially as the Treasury is expected to announce its borrowing needs for the upcoming week.
Read: Wall Street braces for roughly $1.5 trillion in further borrowing needs by Treasury
The Federal Reserve’s Policy Interest Rate
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its policy interest rate steady at a 22-year high, which is in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. This comes as no surprise to experts.
Concerns about the Fed’s Cash Reserves
Despite the stability of the interest rate, there is still a significant amount of concern surrounding the Federal Reserve’s cash reserves. Currently, they hold a staggering $1 trillion in their repo facility. However, experts wonder what would happen if this reserve were to be completely depleted?
Volatility in Stocks and Bonds
Throughout the second half of this year, both stocks and bonds in the United States have experienced increased volatility. This has primarily been attributed to the Federal Reserve’s consistent message that interest rates need to remain higher for a longer period in order to combat falling inflation and bring it back to the target of 2% annually.
Inflation Remains Unchanged
The personal-consumption expenditures price index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation tracker, showed no change over the past year. It remained at 3.4% for September, holding steady from the previous month.
Weekly Losses in the Stock Market
On Friday, stocks were on a downward trend, resulting in significant weekly losses. According to FactSet, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was headed for a 2.2% weekly drop, while the S&P 500 index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite Index were both down by 2.8% and 2.9% respectively for the week.
Notable Sector Declines
The communications services sector of the S&P 500 was particularly affected, with weekly losses on track to exceed 6%. This highlights a significant selloff in shares of major technology companies. Additionally, the energy component of the S&P 500 was down by approximately 6%.
Rising Bond Yields
Bond yields have also seen an increase, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield remaining steady at 4.84% on Friday. This follows a recent surge that saw it reach its highest level since 2007, surpassing 5%.
–Greg Robb contributed reporting