Overview
The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to release data on crude oil inventories for the week ended March 1. Analysts and traders are predicting a sixth consecutive increase in commercial crude stockpiles, with refinery capacity use slowly recovering after weather-induced disruptions and maintenance.
Inventory Estimates
- Crude Oil: Expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels to 448.5 million barrels, with forecasts ranging from a build of 4 million barrels to a draw of 2.6 million barrels.
- Gasoline: Forecasted to decrease by 1.4 million barrels to 242.8 million barrels, estimates varying from a draw of 3.1 million barrels to a build of 1.9 million barrels.
- Distillates: Likely to fall by 400,000 barrels to 120.7 million barrels, with forecasts ranging from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 1.8 million barrels.
Refinery Capacity Use
Refinery capacity use is expected to have risen by 1 percentage point to 82.5%. Forecasts range from an increase of a half percentage point to 1.5 percentage points. Two analysts did not provide forecasts for refinery runs.
Analyst Predictions
| Forecasting Firm | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |——————————-|———|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | | Confluence Investment Management| 4.0 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 1.5 | | DTN | 2.2 | -1.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 | | Excel Futures | 3.5 | -2.6 | -0.8 | 0.8 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -1.3 | -0.9 | 1.8 | n/f | | Mizuho | 2.0 | -1.0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | | Price Futures Group | 3.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 0.5 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -2.1 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 1.5 | | Tradition Energy | 2.8 | -3.1 | -1.7 | n/f | | AVERAGE | 1.3 | -1.4 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
(Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, except for refinery use in percentage points)
Stay tuned for the official data release by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m., EST.
