According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are anticipated to have decreased from the previous week, as reported by the Energy Department’s upcoming data release on Wednesday.
Projections for Crude-Oil Stockpiles
Based on estimates from eight analysts and traders, it is projected that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles have decreased by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending July 14. Out of the analysts, seven predict a decline while only one forecasts an increase. The expectations range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 200,000 barrels.
Potential Reasons for Decrease
The significant decrease in stockpiles may be partly attributed to the completion of the Department of Energy’s recent months-long process of selling crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to commercial entities. Preliminary data from Monday indicated no change in the SPR last week, maintaining its 40-year low of 347 million barrels.
Release of Inventory Data
The highly anticipated inventory data from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration is scheduled to be released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Gasoline Inventories Projections
Analysts suggest that gasoline inventories may decrease by 1.1 million barrels compared to the previous week. Estimates range from a decrease of 2.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
Distillate Stocks Expected to Rise
Stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, are expected to increase by 200,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Forecasts for the upcoming week range from a decrease of 2.5 million barrels to an increase of 2.4 million barrels.
Refinery Use Likely to Slip
Refinery use is projected to decline by 0.1 percentage point from the previous week, reaching 93.6%. Forecasts for the upcoming week range from a decrease of 1.1 percentage points to an increase of 0.6 percentage point. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Latest Data from American Petroleum Institute
According to a source, the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, reported its data for the week. Crude supplies witnessed a decrease of 797,000 barrels, gasoline stocks fell by 2.8 million barrels, and diesel inventories saw a decrease of 100,000 barrels.
Here are the forecasts from various sources for crude, gasoline, distillates, and refinery use:
| Source | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |————————|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -2.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | | Commodity Research Group | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Management | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | | Excel Futures | -1.6 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -1.1 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -0.9 | -1.7 | 2.4 | n/f | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -2 | 1 | unch | | Ritterbusch and Associates| -2 | -2.5 | -1.2 | 0.3 | | Tradition Energy | 0.2 | -0.4 | -2.5 | n/f | | Average | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
Note: “n/f” stands for no forecast, and “unch” indicates no change.
Note: All numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is expressed in percentage points.